I agree with you on O – never could have been done in NYC, too big of a risk. There’s another tide changing here in Vegas, though, that may prevent us from seeing another “O” – realizing that they don’t have to bear the financial risk of shows alone, hotels are bringing in huge corporate partners (Like Clear Channel, a partner in Phantom along with the hotel) or just straight-up renting the room to an outside producer (like Hairspray). They benefit from the increased traffic with little (or no) risk. That kind of risk-averse thinking makes another O increasingly unlikely as time goes on. It’s also worth noting that although O was a huge hit for Steve Wynn, his luck these days picking a hit is failing, and he may be the last big risk taker on the strip.

The biggest problem with the movie analogy is that wherever you make a movie, the audience is in the same place. It doesn’t matter how much more advantageous it is to produce a show here if the audiences won’t diversify beyond a few simple tastes. I thought Avenue Q would be a slam dunk here – cheap to run, funny as hell, great script, great show, “adult” enough to be naughty… and still it can’t find an audience. I am mystified. So far, the only true theatre show (meaning something with a book) that is a success is Mamma Mia, and that’s only at 7 shows per week. New York has a demographic diverse and sophisticated enough that while Mamma Mia is a hit there (at 8 shows per week), so is Doubt. I don’t think that theatre alone is enough to change the interests of the tourists who visit – I can’t see Vegas ever becoming a destination of choice for theatre fans in the same way that NYC is.

Would “O” even previewed on (or off) B-way? I say no way. That show easily equals or bests anything on B-way in terms of butts on seats and revenue. I think this is going to be a fundimental change in comedic musical theater though the creative element may very well stay in Manhattan while launching the shows in Vegas. Look what happened with the movie biz over the last couple of decades. Used to be Hollywood and the Valley had a lock on it. Got too expensive to work there and they moved to Toronto, Vancouver, down under and UK/Europe. The same thing is likely to happen in musical theater. The costs incurred in Manhattan cannot be sustained. A reported US$600k/wk for Chitty Chitty Bang Bang that has to be supported on ticket revenue and merch alone? Now that’s not really a Vegas show but the economics of Vegas can change what’s happening on B-way. Through the ’80s I lived in Hollywood with a person that was an established producer/writer. No one, including her or her peers thought that people would start shooting that much in other places until it became too expensive to work in LA county. They didn’t expect it, the old timers denied it and before they knew it, those shoots had left town.

This is the same sort of thing.

Dave

It’s never been a runaway success, but who knows this time… and while your point about production expense is well taken, I don’t think you’ll be seeing too many new productions (of anything) starting here – the audience for new material just isn’t there, nor is an audience for just about anything but straight-up musical comedy (Mamma Mia!) or spectacle (Cirque, Phantom) – as you noted. Even bringing a Huge Broadway Hit to Vegas has been no guarantee of a good run (See Chicago, Cabaret, Saturday Night Fever, We Will Rock You (OK, West End), Starlight Express, etc. etc. etc.)

I think there IS an audience here for light, snappy musical comedy that doesn’t suffer when cut down to a tab version. Fortunately, I’m on one (Hairspray). But I’m not buying this “Vegas is the New Broadway” hype, and I think when and if The Producers comes here you will see the definition of stinker. I agree with Eric that they’ll continue to try established shows here that they think fit a very specific mold, and I hope I’ll be on them.